Shopify Payments has unpredictable timing. Daily payouts sound good until you hit a Friday, then wait 3 days. Refund reserves, fraud holds, and rolling payouts make planning cash impossible. You need to know: will I have money to pay suppliers next month?
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Week-by-week cash projection with payout timing
Projected danger week with weeks-of-runway alert
When pending orders hit your bank account
Add rent, payroll, ad spend for true cash position
Real outcomes for your Shopify business
Know your runway: See projected cash low point and exact weeks until danger zone
Plan with confidence: Real payout schedules show when money hits your bank - not guesswork
Avoid surprises: Get early warning 3-4 weeks before cash crunches
What this Excel Decision Kit tracks from your Shopify data
Projected bank balance week-by-week based on Shopify payout schedule and pending orders
Your actual payout frequency (daily/weekly/monthly) with weekend/holiday gaps
Shopify holds % of payouts for refunds - show how much is tied up
Which week has lowest cash balance and how close to your danger threshold
How long until you run out of cash if current order velocity continues
From orders to actual cash in bank, with timing
Definition: Opening balance + payouts expected - fees - refunds - estimated expenses
Source: Historical payout timing + order pipeline + fee patterns
Granularity: Week-by-week for 13 weeks ahead
Definition: Minimum cash balance expected in the 13-week window
Source: Conservative payout assumptions + known expenses
Granularity: Single lowest week identified
Definition: Number of weeks until cash balance reaches critical threshold
Source: Current balance + projected burn rate
Granularity: Time-to-threshold calculation
What makes Shopify different and how we handle it
payout.date: actual payout date for timing model
order.financial_status: pending/paid affects when it hits your bank
transactions[].payout_id: which batch it went into
Shopify-specific setup in 7 steps
Authorize access to payouts, orders, and transaction history
One-time: tell us your starting cash position for accurate runway calculation
We detect your payout frequency (daily/weekly/monthly) from history but you can override
Optional: add recurring expenses (rent, payroll) for more accurate cash position
Excel shows week-by-week cash projection with conservative assumptions
See which week is danger zone and plan accordingly (supplier payments, line of credit)
Get rolling forecast emailed weekly as orders and payouts update
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Common questions for Shopify users
We model weekend holds: Friday orders often paid Tuesday. This is critical for cash planning and shows up clearly in the week-by-week breakdown.
If Shopify is holding 25-50% of payouts (first 90 days for new stores), we show held amount separately and when it releases.
Yes - enter rent, payroll, ad spend, etc. We deduct from projected cash to show true available balance.
Forecast uses conservative assumptions: current 30-day average velocity, doesn't assume growth. Better to be safe than surprised.
We analyze 90 days of payout history to learn your actual schedule, then apply it forward 13 weeks.
"We were weeks away from missing payroll and didn't know it. The forecast showed our cash low point 3 weeks out. We secured a line of credit just in time."
Jennifer Kim
Co-Founder, Sustainable Baby Co.
3-week early warning of cash crunch
Secured $50K line of credit in time
Other decision kits for your Shopify data
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